What a Coincidence

It started with a small glitch after a Microsoft software update on my computer. Excel displayed a message indicating that only “read-only” mode was available, meaning creating or editing files was out of the question. Word was fine—until Wednesday, when it developed the same problem.

The fix seemed simple: the message said signing into Microsoft 365 would restore the ability to create and edit files. I did, but neither Word nor Excel recognized that I had signed in.

Tech support—that’s me—went to work, searching the internet, trying suggested fixes, and even contemplating a few things I wasn’t sure I should attempt.

Nothing worked.

Time to call in the professionals. I emailed Microsoft tech support and waited. And waited. Five hours later, just minutes before the scheduled call, I tried the same sign-in process I had repeated several times before. Suddenly, it worked! Excel updated, and Word was updating as I began my conversation with tech support.

Had Microsoft quietly fixed a system problem just before the call? Or was it simply a coincidence?

The next day, Microsoft reported a global outage affecting Microsoft 365 services, including Outlook, Teams, and its AI assistant, Copilot. As of today, the disruption is not yet fully resolved.

Was my little Microsoft problem an early warning of the larger outage? Or just another coincidence?

Friday the 13th: Coincidence on Steroids
Today is Friday the 13th, a date traditionally associated with bad luck. For Microsoft users still struggling with their technology, the superstition may feel justified.

For millions of airline passengers, Friday the 13th lived up to its reputation. At approximately 3:53 p.m. Eastern time, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) ordered a nationwide ground stop for departing flights after a telecommunications outage disrupted air traffic control facilities. Early reports pointed to outdated technology and routers overwhelmed by data as possible causes, although further investigation is needed.

The ground stop lasted more than four hours. But lifting it didn’t mean flights were suddenly back on schedule. Delays and cancellations continued, leaving travelers to deal with the fallout.

Almost immediately, the internet was buzzing with speculation about whether the airline disruption was connected to Microsoft’s outage.

Two major technology disruptions. Two days. One Friday the 13th.

Interesting? Absolutely. But there is currently no evidence establishing a connection between the two events.

Looking for Connections
We humans have a habit of looking for connections. When two unusual things happen close together, we wonder if one has something to do with the other. Sometimes it does. Sometimes the timing is just a coincidence.

Healthcare provides plenty of examples.

Someone develops a headache shortly after starting a new medication. It’s natural to connect the two events. The medication may be responsible, but headaches are common and can have many explanations. The timing raises a question, but it doesn’t necessarily provide the answer.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports an increase in diagnoses of a particular condition. Does that mean more people are developing the condition? Or could the increase reflect expanded screening, resulting in more cases being identified?

Timing Isn’t Everything
Coincidences can be intriguing. Sometimes they point us toward something worth investigating. Other times, they are simply two unrelated events that happen to share a place on the calendar.

My Microsoft problem may have been an early sign of a much larger technology failure. Or perhaps I was just lucky (or unlucky) with the timing.

Either way, seeing a connection doesn’t necessarily mean one exists.

In healthcare, that distinction matters. Just because two things happen together doesn’t mean one is related to the other. Correlation may get our attention, but evidence deserves the final word.

Happy reading,
Suzanne Daniels, Ph.D.